讲座题目：Decarbonization Scenarios and Carbon Reduction Potential for China’s Road Transportation by 2060

报告人：卢全莹 北京工业大学经济与管理学院

讲座时间：2022年12月30日(周五) 12:15-13:30

腾讯会议 ID：127-744-947

内容摘要

This paper constructed a high-frequency carbon emission database of China’s road traffic across cities based on high-frequency passenger vehicle sales data and motor vehicle real-time monitoring big data. The study found that although the number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) increased four times from 2016 to 2019, their proportion in the total number of motor vehicles was still small, and the average annual growth rate of road passenger traffic emissions was still as high as 20.5%. The emission reduction effect of transportation electrification is significant, but the currently limited proliferation of electric vehicles restricts their potential. Assuming that the electricity consumed by electric vehicles comes from thermal power, the current emission reduction contribution of transportation electrification is only 0.6%, and it could be increased to 1.4% if the electricity came from clean energy. Transportation electrification and total motor quantity control are the factors that contribute most to emission reduction, with the highest contributions in 2060 reaching 33% and 66%, respectively. The continued inertia of fuel vehicles in the road transportation system will slow the path of the road transport sector toward carbon neutrality.

主讲人简介

卢全莹，北京工业大学经济与管理学院校聘教授、博士生导师。中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院特别研究助理（博士后），中国科学院大学经济与管理学院博士。主要研究方向为能源环境经济与政策分析、经济分析与预测，现已在Nature子刊、Energy Economics、Energy Policy、Transportation Research Part D、Quantitative Finance等国际知名期刊发表论文30余篇；出版专著3部；多篇参与撰写的政策研究报告获得领导人肯定性批示；主持国家自然科学基金等课题2项；先后获5项省部级奖。