近期，商学院青年教师李扬的论文“Exploring the Spoiler Effect in the Digital Age: Evidence from the Movie Industry”被运营管理与管理科学领域权威期刊《Decision Support Systems》收录。《Decision Support Systems》属于JCR SCI一区，2021年影响因子5.795, ABS 3, ABDC A*, FMS管理科学高质量期刊信息管理A类。

论文简介：

现如今，网络口碑已成为现代企业运营的重要推动力，大量研究发现网络口碑在产品销售、品牌推广等方面的积极影响。然而，对于电影这类叙事型产品，消费者通过网络口碑虽然可以获取积极的决策支持信息，但其中关于产品剧情的信息却可能造成剧透的负面影响。网络口碑中的阴暗面（dark side）往往被学界所忽视。

本研究利用网络爬虫抓取豆瓣网465部电影的279,433条电影评论，利用剧透警告机制有效识别了网络口碑中的剧透信息，通过动态广义矩估计模型（Dynamic GMM）结合工具变量法，对电影市场中的剧透效应进行了探究。研究发现，剧透对电影票房具有显著的负面影响，这种影响主要作用于电影上映的前6天。而叙事性、网络口碑数量和网络口碑差异均会对剧透效应产生负向的调节作用。这一研究结论拓宽了学界对叙事产品网络口碑的认识，为网络平台和娱乐产业运营提供了有效的建议。

ABSTRACT

For narrative products such as movies, books, and TV shows, electronic word of mouth (eWOM) can be a double-edged sword. It provides consumers with useful information while potentially revealing the storyline, that is, spoiling the surprise of what will happen. Prior studies have focused on the impact of spoilers on consumers’ experiences through psychological experiments. However, the relationship between spoilers and narrative product sales has rarely been empirically explored.

To fill this gap, the current study explores the impact of spoilers on the movie box office revenue and how this impact evolves over time. We collected 279,433 reviews of 465 films on a leading community website in China and constructed a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model with instrumental variables to empirically examine the spoiler effect in the movie market. Our findings indicate that spoilers have a negative influence on the movie box office revenue.

However, this impact is limited to the first six days after the movie is released. We also discover that spoilers have a stronger negative effect on narrative-based movies than non-narrative-based movies. Furthermore, eWOM volume and eWOM variance negatively moderate the spoiler effect on the box office revenue, but the moderating effect of eWOM valence is not significant. These findings can deepen movie industry decision makers’ and platform providers’ understanding of spoilers, helping them devise more feasible eWOM operation strategies.

李扬，毕业于南开大学商学院管理科学与工程系，2020年9月入职山东师范大学商学院。主要研究方向为社交媒体、网络口碑和在线消费者行为。以第一作者或通讯作者在《南开管理评论》、《管理科学》、《运筹与管理》等权威期刊发表学术论文多篇。

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